Structural-Demographic Theory
a.k.a. SDT
A theory that societies become unstable when living standards fall for ordinary people and too many elites compete for too few top positions.
Structural-demographic theory (SDT), developed by Jack Goldstone and popularised by Peter Turchin, tries to explain why societies go through cycles of stability and turmoil. Its main ingredients: falling living standards for the majority, too many would-be elites fighting over a limited number of powerful positions ("elite overproduction"), and a strained state budget.
When those three build up together, the theory says, the risk of political upheaval rises. It is a big-picture lens some macro investors use to think about long-run political risk, not a timing tool.
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