Summary of Economic Projections
a.k.a. SEP, Fed projections
The Fed's quarterly release of policymakers' forecasts for growth, unemployment, inflation and interest rates, including the dot plot.
Four times a year, alongside its rate decision, the FOMC publishes the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Each policymaker gives their forecast for GDP growth, unemployment and inflation over the next few years, plus where they think interest rates should be. The rate forecasts are shown as the famous dot plot.
Markets often react more to the SEP than to the decision itself, because it reveals the expected path of rates. A shift of a single dot can move the dollar.
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