Bloomberg U.S. Economic Surprise Index
a.k.a. Economic surprise index
A measure of whether US economic data has been coming in better or worse than forecasters expected.
In plain English
A measure of whether US economic data has been coming in better or worse than forecasters expected.
Every economic release has a consensus forecast. An economic surprise index tracks how far the actual numbers beat or miss those forecasts over recent weeks. Above zero: data is beating expectations. Below zero: it is disappointing.
Markets move on surprises, not on levels, so this kind of index often lines up with swings in the dollar and bond yields. Surprise indexes tend to revert, because forecasters adjust.
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