Lingo topic · 107 terms
Economic indicators
GDP, jobs, inflation and the data releases that shake markets.
A
- AAII Sentiment SurveyA weekly poll asking US individual investors whether they expect stocks to rise, fall or go nowhere over the next six months.
- ADP National Employment ReportA monthly estimate of US private-sector job growth from payroll firm ADP, released a couple of days before the official jobs report.
- ANZ Commodity Price IndexA monthly index from ANZ bank tracking prices of New Zealand's main export commodities, watched by NZD traders.
- API Weekly Statistical BulletinA weekly report of US crude oil and fuel stockpiles from the American Petroleum Institute, released the day before the government's figures.
B
- Baker Hughes Rig CountA weekly count of active oil and gas drilling rigs, mostly watched for the US, published by oilfield firm Baker Hughes.
- Balance of PaymentsA country's full record of money flowing in and out over a period: trade, income, investment and loans.
- Balance of TradeThe value of a country's exports minus its imports. Positive is a trade surplus; negative is a trade deficit.
- Baltic Dry IndexA daily index of what it costs to ship bulk raw materials like iron ore, coal and grain by sea.
- Beige BookA Fed report, published eight times a year, that collects stories from businesses across the twelve Federal Reserve districts.
- Beveridge CurveA chart plotting job vacancies against unemployment, used to judge how well the labour market matches workers to jobs.
- Bloomberg U.S. Economic Surprise IndexA measure of whether US economic data has been coming in better or worse than forecasters expected.
- Building PermitsA monthly count of how many new homes local authorities approved for construction, an early read on the housing market.
- Business InventoriesA monthly US report on the value of goods that manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers have sitting in stock.
C
- Caixin Manufacturing PMIA monthly survey of purchasing managers at Chinese factories, with a heavier tilt toward smaller private firms than the official survey.
- Caixin Services PMIA monthly survey of Chinese service-sector companies, where a reading above 50 signals growth.
- Capacity UtilizationThe share of an economy's factories, mines and utilities that is actually in use, compared with what could be used.
- Capital AccountThe part of the balance of payments that records investment and borrowing flows across a country's borders.
- Chicago PMIA monthly survey of business activity in the Chicago region, released just before the national ISM manufacturing report.
- Claimant CountA monthly UK figure showing how many people claim unemployment-related benefits, and how that number changed.
- Commitments of Traders ReportA weekly CFTC report showing how different groups of traders are positioned in US futures markets, including currency futures.
- Commodity Research Bureau IndexA long-running index that tracks the prices of a basket of commodities such as energy, metals and crops.
- Conference Board Leading Economic IndexA monthly composite of ten US indicators designed to signal turning points in the economy before they happen.
- Consensus ForecastThe average prediction from economists for an upcoming data release, which markets use as the bar the actual number is judged against.
- Construction SpendingA monthly US report on how much is being spent on building homes, offices, factories and public works.
- Consumer Confidence IndexA monthly US survey from The Conference Board asking households how they feel about the economy, jobs and income now and ahead.
- Consumer CreditThe total amount households owe on credit cards, car loans, student loans and other non-mortgage debt.
- Consumer Price IndexA monthly measure of how the prices of a typical basket of household goods and services are changing: the headline inflation gauge.
- Continuing Jobless ClaimsThe weekly US count of people who are still receiving unemployment benefits after their first week.
- Core PCE Price IndexA US inflation measure based on what consumers spend on, excluding food and energy. The Fed watches it closely.
- Current AccountThe part of the balance of payments covering trade in goods and services, plus income and transfers with the rest of the world.
D
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing IndexA monthly survey of factory activity in Texas from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- DeflationA sustained fall in the general level of prices across an economy.
- DisinflationA slowdown in the rate of inflation: prices are still rising, just more slowly than before.
- Durable Goods OrdersA monthly US report on new orders for long-lasting manufactured goods like machinery, appliances and aircraft.
E
- Economic CalendarA schedule of upcoming economic data releases, central bank meetings and events, with forecasts and past results.
- Economic IndicatorA statistic that shows how an economy is doing, such as GDP, unemployment or inflation.
- EIA Crude Oil InventoriesThe US government's weekly report on how much crude oil is in storage, released by the Energy Information Administration.
- Empire State Manufacturing IndexA monthly New York Fed survey of manufacturers in New York State, one of the earliest reads on US factory activity each month.
- Employment ChangeThe monthly change in the number of people employed, a headline jobs figure in countries like Canada and Australia.
- Employment Cost IndexA quarterly US measure of how much employers' costs for wages and benefits are rising.
- Employment Situation ReportThe monthly US jobs report, home of the non-farm payrolls number and the unemployment rate.
- Existing Home SalesA monthly US report on how many previously owned homes were sold, published by the National Association of Realtors.
- ExportsGoods and services a country sells to the rest of the world.
F
G
- German Manufacturing PMIA monthly survey of purchasing managers at German factories, where readings above 50 mean the sector is growing.
- GfK Consumer ConfidenceMonthly surveys from market researcher GfK of how households in Germany (and, separately, the UK) feel about the economy and spending.
- Global Dairy Trade Price IndexThe price index from regular online dairy auctions, closely watched as a driver of the New Zealand dollar.
- Global Supply Chain Pressure IndexA New York Fed gauge that combines shipping costs, delivery times and other data to measure strain on global supply chains.
- Gross Domestic ProductThe total value of all goods and services produced in a country over a period: the broadest measure of an economy's size and growth.
- Gross National ProductThe total income earned by a country's residents and companies, at home or abroad.
H
- Halifax House Price IndexA monthly UK house price index from mortgage lender Halifax, based on its own mortgage approvals.
- Home Loans (Australia)Australian data on new home loans taken out each month, a read on the housing market and borrowing.
- Housing StartsThe number of new homes on which building began in a month, a key US housing indicator.
- HyperinflationExtremely fast, out-of-control inflation, often defined as prices rising more than 50% in a month.
I
- ICE U.S. Dollar Inflation Expectations IndexAn index from Intercontinental Exchange designed to track what financial markets expect US inflation to be.
- ifo Business Climate IndexA monthly survey of German businesses from the ifo Institute in Munich, a closely watched read on Europe's largest economy.
- Import Price IndexA measure of how the prices of goods bought from abroad are changing.
- ImportsGoods and services a country buys from the rest of the world.
- Industrial ProductionA monthly measure of the output of factories, mines and utilities.
- InflationThe rate at which prices across an economy are rising, which means each unit of money buys a little less.
- Initial Jobless ClaimsThe weekly US count of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, a timely read on layoffs.
- Inverted Yield CurveWhen short-term government bonds pay higher yields than long-term ones, often seen as a warning of recession.
- ISM Manufacturing PMIA monthly survey of US factory purchasing managers from the Institute for Supply Management; above 50 means manufacturing is expanding.
- ISM Services PMIA monthly ISM survey of US service-sector companies; above 50 signals growth in the larger part of the economy.
- Ivey PMIA monthly Canadian survey of purchasing managers from the Ivey Business School, where readings above 50 signal expanding activity.
J
K
L
M
- M2A measure of how much money is sloshing around an economy: cash, checking and savings accounts, and other near-cash.
- MBA Mortgage ApplicationsA weekly US report on how many people are applying for home loans, a quick pulse check on housing.
- Money SupplyThe total amount of money circulating in an economy, measured in layers like M0, M1 and M2.
N
- NAHB Housing Market IndexA monthly survey of US homebuilders asking how good business is right now and how it looks ahead.
- Net International Investment PositionA country's foreign assets minus what it owes to foreigners: its net worth against the rest of the world.
- New Home SalesA monthly US report on how many newly built homes were sold, a quick read on housing demand.
- NFIB Small Business Jobs ReportA monthly survey of US small businesses about hiring, job openings and how hard it is to find workers.
- NFIB Small Business Optimism IndexA monthly gauge of how confident US small-business owners feel about the economy and their own prospects.
- Non-Farm PayrollsThe monthly count of jobs added or lost in the US economy outside farming, one of the most market-moving releases there is.
- Nonfarm ProductivityA quarterly US measure of how much output American workers produce per hour outside farming.
P
- PCE Price IndexThe US Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, based on what people actually spend money on.
- Pending Home SalesA monthly US index of existing homes that are under contract but haven't closed yet, an early hint of future sales.
- Personal Consumption ExpendituresThe monthly US measure of how much households spend on goods and services, the engine of the American economy.
- Personal IncomeA monthly US measure of all the money people receive: wages, benefits, rent, dividends and interest.
- Philadelphia Fed IndexA monthly survey of factory managers in the Philadelphia region, one of the first reads on US manufacturing each month.
- Producer Price IndexA measure of the prices businesses receive for their goods and services, often an early warning of consumer inflation.
- Purchasing Managers IndexA monthly survey of business buyers that shows whether manufacturing or services activity is expanding or shrinking.
R
- RecessionA significant, broad-based decline in economic activity that lasts more than a few months.
- Redbook IndexA weekly measure of US same-store retail sales at large general retailers.
- Retail SalesA monthly measure of how much shoppers spent at stores and online, a key read on consumer demand.
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing IndexA monthly survey of factory activity in the US mid-Atlantic region from the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank.
S
- S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price IndexA monthly index of US home prices, built by tracking repeat sales of the same houses over time.
- Sahm RuleA recession warning that triggers when the US unemployment rate rises half a point above its recent low.
- Senior Loan Officer Opinion SurveyA Fed survey of bank lending officers about whether they are making loans easier or harder to get.
- Supercore PCEA slice of US inflation covering services prices other than housing and energy, watched as a read on wage-driven inflation.
- SurplusHaving more coming in than going out, as with a government budget or a country's trade.
T
- Tankan SurveyThe Bank of Japan's quarterly survey of business conditions, Japan's most watched gauge of corporate sentiment.
- Term SpreadThe gap between long-term and short-term interest rates, such as 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yields.
- Total Vehicle SalesA monthly count of new cars and light trucks sold in the US, a read on consumer confidence and big-ticket spending.
- Trade BalanceThe value of a country's exports minus its imports.
- Treasury International CapitalA monthly US Treasury report tracking how much foreigners are buying and selling of US stocks, bonds and other assets.
- TruflationAn independent inflation index that uses real-time price data from many sources, updated daily instead of monthly.
U
- U-StarThe unemployment rate an economy can sustain without pushing inflation up or down; written u*.
- Unemployment RateThe share of people in the labour force who want a job but don't have one.
- University of Michigan Consumer SentimentA monthly US survey of how consumers feel about their finances and the economy, including their inflation expectations.
W
Z
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