Consensus Forecast
a.k.a. Consensus, Market expectations
The average prediction from economists for an upcoming data release, which markets use as the bar the…
In plain English
The average prediction from economists for an upcoming data release, which markets use as the bar the actual number is judged against.
Before a release like CPI or a jobs report, news services poll economists and publish the middle of their forecasts: the consensus.
Markets mostly move on the surprise: the gap between the actual number and the consensus. A 'good' number that is weaker than expected can still sink a currency.
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